The Observer Effect: Sports Fan Edition
Dec. 21st, 2023 04:02 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
onepageatatimeSports fans, whether they will admit it or not, often tend to be a bit superstitious. And that can lead to an Observer Effect assumption: that whether we watch or don't watch has an effect on the sports we enjoy. (For me, that often seems to be the tendency for "my" teams to lose when I watch them, even if they win the previous and subsequent games.) Obviously there's a whole lot of confirmation bias in these superstitions, which I'm sure would break down on the slightest examination with any rigor.
But this week, my "is it me?" moment is where two of "my teams," in two different sports, in two different countries, on two different continents, both sent their head coaches packing, within a day or two of each other. In both cases, the teams have been winning far fewer games than fans expected. In both cases, the coaches involved seem to be lauded as genuinely good people who have done good things for their teams, but whose teams are now in different situations from when they were hired (and, by implication, they are no longer the right person for the teams' needs today).
The first was my Ottawa Senators. They went into this season with (in the eyes of the fanbase) unreasonable expectations, mostly because of off-ice conditions. After years with a… polarizing owner, and then a period that felt far longer than it was with that late owner's daughters owning the club while seeking new owners, the new owners were finally handed the reins shortly before the start of this season. The new owners are hockey people, but smart enough to not want to jump into decisions hastily. If they'd had their way, I think they really wanted the coach to see out the season before making offseason changes next spring/summer, but the results have been disappointing. (The team had already lost its General Manager to a scandal, where punishment was controversially announced long after the behavior at its root, such that the results of investiation and the announcement of the team's punishment came under different ownership than was in place at the time the scandalous behavior took place.)
The second was one of my Premier League teams: Nottingham Forest. Their manager, Steve Cooper, has been much loved, having brought the team up to the Premier League after many years away from the top level of English ⚽️. (In fact, after playing in the Premier League for five of the first seven seasons of the league's existence, Forest had played 23 consecutive seasons in lower leagues before being promoted back to the Premier League in 2022.) So far, this season, they are in 17th place out of 20 teams, only one rank above demotion out of the Premier League. They have lost more than half of their games this season, with only 3 wins and 5 draws to go with their 9 losses.
And… when these happen in the same week? It is really hard to not apologize for jinxing the teams I support. Intellectually, I know that I have nothing to do with it, but emotionally, it can sometimes feel that way (Aren't emotions annoying sometimes?!?)
One added bit of weirdness is that both the teams replacing their coaches are going to people that I have previous rooting interests in. In Ottawa, its longest-serving previous head coach has been handed the reins on an interim basis (presumably for the rest of this season), and a former team captain has been appointed assistant coach. At Forest, they brought in a man who previously coached the other Premier League team I cheer for* (though my opinions of him are far lower, based on how short and unsuccessful his tenure at that team was). Hopefully things go better with him at Forest, because he is the new manager, not an interim appointment.
As for new-guy results? The Sens, under their new coaching staff, took a 3-0 lead in the first period, before eventually squandering that lead to a 4-3 loss. (Change isn't instant, I know, and this change was in the middle of a road trip. The Senators play a lot of games right now, making up for having been given extra days off to accommodate jet lag around playing two neutral-site games this season in Sweden. They play again tonight in Colorado before playing at home on Saturday in their final game before Christmas.
Forest haven't played yet, but have a similarly busy stretch: they play Saturday at home, and play a pair of games between Christmas and New Year's. They then have three weeks until their next game, which will hopefully be good for giving the team and its new manager time with each other (though I am not sure what else is on the ⚽️ calendar, and whether they will be missing players during that break for international play)
* Yes, I cheer for two different Premier League teams. I had cheered for one for a few seasons after watching a documentary series. My interest has waned somewhat since the manager and so many players of that era are no longer with the team, but I still enjoy watching them (and most years, they qualify for European play, so it gives me a rooting interest in whichever competition they qualify for each year). I actually started cheering for Forest before they were in the Premier League (though not for nearly so long as most). A player I liked from the Canadian national team and from Toronto FC of Major League Soccer was transferred to Forest, so I started following them. Laryea didn't get much time to play there before he was loaned back to this side of the Atlantic, but I enjoyed watching their fight for promotion and have continued to follow them in the PL. Except when the two teams play each other twice each year, they often don't feel like they're in the same League, because Spurs are high in the top half of the table, while Forest's main goal in their season and a half has been "don't get relegated."
But this week, my "is it me?" moment is where two of "my teams," in two different sports, in two different countries, on two different continents, both sent their head coaches packing, within a day or two of each other. In both cases, the teams have been winning far fewer games than fans expected. In both cases, the coaches involved seem to be lauded as genuinely good people who have done good things for their teams, but whose teams are now in different situations from when they were hired (and, by implication, they are no longer the right person for the teams' needs today).
The first was my Ottawa Senators. They went into this season with (in the eyes of the fanbase) unreasonable expectations, mostly because of off-ice conditions. After years with a… polarizing owner, and then a period that felt far longer than it was with that late owner's daughters owning the club while seeking new owners, the new owners were finally handed the reins shortly before the start of this season. The new owners are hockey people, but smart enough to not want to jump into decisions hastily. If they'd had their way, I think they really wanted the coach to see out the season before making offseason changes next spring/summer, but the results have been disappointing. (The team had already lost its General Manager to a scandal, where punishment was controversially announced long after the behavior at its root, such that the results of investiation and the announcement of the team's punishment came under different ownership than was in place at the time the scandalous behavior took place.)
The second was one of my Premier League teams: Nottingham Forest. Their manager, Steve Cooper, has been much loved, having brought the team up to the Premier League after many years away from the top level of English ⚽️. (In fact, after playing in the Premier League for five of the first seven seasons of the league's existence, Forest had played 23 consecutive seasons in lower leagues before being promoted back to the Premier League in 2022.) So far, this season, they are in 17th place out of 20 teams, only one rank above demotion out of the Premier League. They have lost more than half of their games this season, with only 3 wins and 5 draws to go with their 9 losses.
And… when these happen in the same week? It is really hard to not apologize for jinxing the teams I support. Intellectually, I know that I have nothing to do with it, but emotionally, it can sometimes feel that way (Aren't emotions annoying sometimes?!?)
One added bit of weirdness is that both the teams replacing their coaches are going to people that I have previous rooting interests in. In Ottawa, its longest-serving previous head coach has been handed the reins on an interim basis (presumably for the rest of this season), and a former team captain has been appointed assistant coach. At Forest, they brought in a man who previously coached the other Premier League team I cheer for* (though my opinions of him are far lower, based on how short and unsuccessful his tenure at that team was). Hopefully things go better with him at Forest, because he is the new manager, not an interim appointment.
As for new-guy results? The Sens, under their new coaching staff, took a 3-0 lead in the first period, before eventually squandering that lead to a 4-3 loss. (Change isn't instant, I know, and this change was in the middle of a road trip. The Senators play a lot of games right now, making up for having been given extra days off to accommodate jet lag around playing two neutral-site games this season in Sweden. They play again tonight in Colorado before playing at home on Saturday in their final game before Christmas.
Forest haven't played yet, but have a similarly busy stretch: they play Saturday at home, and play a pair of games between Christmas and New Year's. They then have three weeks until their next game, which will hopefully be good for giving the team and its new manager time with each other (though I am not sure what else is on the ⚽️ calendar, and whether they will be missing players during that break for international play)
* Yes, I cheer for two different Premier League teams. I had cheered for one for a few seasons after watching a documentary series. My interest has waned somewhat since the manager and so many players of that era are no longer with the team, but I still enjoy watching them (and most years, they qualify for European play, so it gives me a rooting interest in whichever competition they qualify for each year). I actually started cheering for Forest before they were in the Premier League (though not for nearly so long as most). A player I liked from the Canadian national team and from Toronto FC of Major League Soccer was transferred to Forest, so I started following them. Laryea didn't get much time to play there before he was loaned back to this side of the Atlantic, but I enjoyed watching their fight for promotion and have continued to follow them in the PL. Except when the two teams play each other twice each year, they often don't feel like they're in the same League, because Spurs are high in the top half of the table, while Forest's main goal in their season and a half has been "don't get relegated."